The Energy Challenge
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For example, displays at the G8 included a series of heat pumps, marketed under the brand "Eco Cute" in Japan. These pumps are designed to offer residential and commercial heating, cooling, water heating and other functions. According to the IEA, more widespread adoption of heat pump technology globally would offer significant carbon mitigation benefits.

It's likely energy efficiency will once again take center stage at the Italian G8 Summit next summer. The IEA offered a list of 25 specific recommendations on energy efficiency. Individual countries will offer more details on national action plans for meeting these goals as well as specific medium-term efficiency goals and standards.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies also featured prominently in the IEA's report and in the G8 Communiqué. CCS is simply a technology for capturing carbon dioxide emitted from power plants and permanently storing that gas underground rather than releasing it into the atmosphere. While the technology certainly exists, CCS has never been fitted on a commercial-scale power plant. Member nations pledged to work toward the goal of building 20 CCS demonstration projects globally by 2010 and beginning broad deployment by 2020.

Coal is the cheapest fossil fuel in the world today and consumption of coal is rising at a far faster pace than either oil or natural gas. While coal is a relatively dirty fuel and a major contributor to global carbon emissions, it is also the key source of power for most emerging markets including China and India. Given the rapid growth in electricity demand in these countries, it's unlikely they'll be able to replace coal-fired power capacity completely in a reasonable time frame.

The significant focus on CCS and coal efficiency at this year's G8 is a clear admission of the rising importance of emerging economies in global energy and climate change policy. We suspect that CCS will once again see considerable attention at Italy's G8 this summer; as outlined below, Italy is has made some strong moves to push for an expansion of the G8 to include key emerging markets.

Nuclear power also featured prominently in the IEA's report and at the G8 Summit this summer. Nuclear power accounts for roughly three-quarters of the world's carbon-free power generation and the IEA projects that wider adoption of nuclear technology could save the world roughly 2.9 Gt per annum in emissions by 2050.

The Official G8 Communiqué recognized the fact that many nations around the world are pursuing nuclear as a carbon-free power source. The G8 leaders endorsed a framework for ensuring that nuclear power can grow in a safe and secure way.

We also expect nuclear to be a big topic at the 2009 G8 in Italy. In the spring of 2008, Italian economic development minister Claudio Scajola announced an aggressive push to pursue nuclear energy in Italy. The nation held a referendum on nuclear power in 1987, the year after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in the Ukraine; subsequently, Italy closed all of its existing nuclear plants. In the 1990's, the nation extended a moratorium on nuclear plant construction indefinitely.

But the nation is now the largest net importer of power in Europe and has among the Continent's highest energy costs. Italy has now announced a formal policy of beginning construction on a new plant within five years with an intention of building a new generation of plants. Scajola noted that the country can no longer afford to wait on a plan to restart its nuclear program. This is part of a broader global re-examination of nuclear power; that trend will be a major player in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

Finally, as you might expect, renewable energy is also as big part of the IEA's vision for carbon reduction by 2050; the organization is looking for 21 percent of total global carbon savings under its BLUE scenario to come from renewables. Under that plan, close to 46 percent of total global electricity generation would come from renewable sources by 2050.

But, this is among the most ambitious projections. As the IEA notes, the key to growth in renewable technologies is consistent policy -- a system of subsidies to promote sources like solar and wind that are still more expensive than fossil fuel-fired plants. Over time, these subsidies should decline as technology improves and costs fall.

The IEA also noted the importance of investing in the electricity grid globally. High penetrations of renewable energy requires significant grid modernization, a topic the IEA addressed in a separate report. It's likely we'll hear more specifics and more talk press so-called advanced "smart grid" technologies at the G8 Summit next summer in Italy.

The Rising Importance of Emerging Markets


Equally important, the very nature of the G8 itself is in flux. Thanks to rapid economic growth in emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil, billions of people are achieving a better quality of life. As disposable incomes rise, emerging markets are also becoming key actors in the global economy; any international energy policy that doesn't consider the importance of these dynamic countries and their unique challenges is ultimately doomed to failure.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), emerging economies outside the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) actually emitted slightly more carbon in 2005 than the developed OECD countries. This disparity is only going to grow in coming years; by 2030 the EIA projects that non-OECD nations will emit 73 percent more carbon than the developed world. Between 2005 and 2030, OECD carbon emissions are projected to grow just 14 percent, compared to a near doubling in the developing world.

The most recognizable outcome of G8 meetings is the official communiqués issued following major meetings between world leaders. Traditionally, these statements are issued jointly by the heads of the eight big industrial powers (the G8), representing a sort of compromise and give-and-take between world leaders. However, this year the summit was far more inclusive than that, with 22 nations participating.

The scope of participation in this year’s meeting is a testament to the rising importance of emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil; these nations all sent delegations to Hokkaido. These larger groups of nations also issued statements.

Globalization and the emerging markets are set to be major issues for Italy's Presidency of the G8 in 2009. Italy's Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti recently indicated that Italy would champion efforts to transition the G8 into the G14 -- the more inclusive group would include China, India, South Africa, Mexico and Brazil.

The G8 Summit in Hokkaido, Japan addressed the all-important issues of energy and climate change and the official communiqué offered a strong endorsement of an aggressive plan to cut global carbon emissions by 2050. But, setting targets is easier than enacting policy to achieve those goals; the G8's work on these key issues is far from over. Next year's Summit in Italy should offer significantly more clarity on how individual countries intend to set and meet medium-term emissions targets.

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